In A Pickle
By
Leonard Zwelling
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/09/us/politics/trump-iran-war.html?searchResultPosition=3
In his article in The New York Times on July 11, David Sanger describes the pickle that President finds himself in and it is one of Trump’s own making.
Mr. Trump decided in late February to bomb Iran in a joint attack with Israel. At the time of the attack, the American people were offered many different reasons and objectives for the attack by Mr. Trump.
Eliminating any chance for the Iranians to produce a nuclear weapon was goal one. Remember that the United States buried the Iranian’s almost-bomb grade material under rubble last June in bombing raids. Clearly the president’s assessment was that Iran was still capable of creating a nuclear weapon despite the raids in 2025, thus the job had not been completed and needed to be.
The second goal was to remove the leaders of the Islamic Republic who had plagued the United States since 1979 from the early days of the hostage crisis to the current threat of a nuclear Iran. The Israelis and the Americans killed the Iranian Supreme Leader on day one of the war and many other prominent government and military figures since. Yet, the leadership of Iran is still in the hands of the mullahs suggesting that it matters little who has the title of leader in this Shia Muslim theocracy. “Death to America and death to Israel” is still the motto of Iran and is repeated in the streets by Iranians, at least as recently as last week on TV.
The third goal the president outlined was to foment a revolution among these same Iranian people to overthrow the ayatollah. Many ordinary Iranian citizen-protestors tried and were killed by the Republican Guard when a rebellion was started prior to the war. These rebels have no guns. They cannot defeat the state run paramilitary. And did you see the millions that came out for the funeral of the dead ayatollah? What revolution?
Then, of course, the Israelis wanted two main things out of this war: ending the existential threat of a nuclear Iran and ending the very present threat of the Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen, and the West Bank—goal 4. That didn’t happen either.
OK, then Trump decided to cut one of his signature deals with the “memorandum of understanding,” basically a way to open up the Strait of Hormuz which was only closed AFTER the U.S. attack. I guess he thought allowing the Iranians to export their oil would get Iran drunk on its oil profits after sanctions were lifted, and the Iranians would continue discussions on all of the other issues listed above, none of which have been addressed as of yet.
Instead, in return, Iran has attacked three ships in the Strait and the U.S. and Iran are trading ever-intensifying missile attacks including Iranian attacks on U.S. bases in Arab Gulf countries.
It is safe to say that neither Trump’s attack (plan A), nor his “deal” (plan B) has solved his self-induced pickle problem. The stock market fell again. Gas prices have begun to rise again. A third of the Senate and the entire House is up for grabs in November and Trump’s War has become a drag on Republicans. Trump definitely is in a pickle, thus so are we all.
Can he extricate himself and us?
It would probably help if he had some friends beside Bibi and Bibi and The Donald are not seeing eye-to-eye right now as Israel wants the war to go on until its goals of a nuclear-free Iran, its neighborhood free of Irani proxies, and the mullahs gone are met. Bibi has an election coming up in the fall, too, and if he loses, he could wind up in jail and/or be found negligent in his defense of his country on October 7, 2023.
Of course, Trump went to Turkey and insulted our NATO allies again. Does he have any friends besides the ones he buys?
Sanger notes that Trump has not described Plan C. I think he has only two choices and one of those has two sub-choices.
Choice one is to declare victory and leave. Americans will be happy that their tax dollars are not going toward another “forever war,” (the most recent cost estimate is $80-100 billion so far), but Iran will be in charge of the Strait and can ratchet up the price we pay at the pump whenever it feels like it. Ditto with Iran unleashing Hamas and Hezbollah on Israel at Iran’s choosing.
Choice two, sub-part A is to fight to win. This would mean extensive bombing, naval attacks in the Strait, and perhaps an invasion of Iranian territory including boots on the ground. I don’t think Trump wants to do this, but he cannot win from the air alone as the last few months have demonstrated.
Choice two, sub-part B. Will this American President become the second person to employ nuclear weapons in war? I only bring this up because Trump may well be in a situation not unlike that of Harry Truman in 1945. Japan just would not surrender and to capture the island with an invasion might cost thousands of American lives after Germany had been defeated.
I do not believe that Trump would risk making the United States the ultimate pariah among nations. A nuclear weapon would defeat Iran, but then what? The United States would still need to put boots on the ground in Iran. I don’t think this scenario is likely. It is, however, the one that the AI tools arrive at during war games, I have been told.
In the end, I think Trump may try one more bombing run, but it won’t work anymore than the previous few have unless he unleashes the US Navy to pry open the Strait of Hormuz. I believe the Navy could do that, but it would be very costly in blood and treasure.
I think within two months, all the American ships will come home, Trump will declare victory as only he can, and gas prices will drop. How Trump’s choice affects the fall elections is anyone’s guess, but I don’t think Trump will go to BIG war to end this as yet regional war. I think he will TACO yet again: Trump Always Chickens Out.
In turn, that could defeat Bibi in October as Israel gained nothing through its military action and no one has yet taken responsibility for the security failures of October 7.
I don’t know if you have ever been in a pickle like this. I know I have, but on a much smaller scale, of course. I have found that the best choice is to save as much face as you can, declare victory, and live to fight another day. As much as it will gall Trump to do this, I believe that he will.
